Arsene Wenger made the point that if Arsenal wants to improve on their finish this year, it can only be by winning the league. After a crazy season like the one just ended, it would be rash to say they can't do it. How can it be done?
I'd keep Wenger for one more season. He deserves to go out on his own terms. He's as much as said that if he doesn't win the league next season, he's gone. He might consider leaving even if he does win. He may want to cap his career by managing the French national team. The major needs are at forward and center back. Cech was excellent, but I still like Szczesny and would bring him back after another year out on loan. He's been very good at Roma. Both deserve to start somewhere--Ospina as well--but obviously only one gets to wear #1. (Szczesny still has that number at Arsenal.) Gabriel is quite good, but Mertesacker is nearing the end of his career and Koscielny needs a strong partner. I don't know if Callum Chambers is ever going to achieve first team starting status; it's not looking good now. But a top quality CB alongside Kos, backed by (and rotated with) Gabriel, Per (for another year or two), and Chambers (who can also play RB and DM (poorly) in a pinch) would leave us in a strong position, If Gibbs leaves (who could blame him?) we're short at LB and have to get someone who can fill in for Monreal, who has been very fortunate to have escaped serious injury. I'm not sure if we need Jenkinson back behind Bellerin. Coquelin is an excellent DM, and Elneny seems capable of filling that role as well. Of course, everyone would love another top class DM, but that isn't the first priority now. The attacking mids and wingers on the books are very good, but Alexis is the only game-breaker, and even he was a step below Mahrez and DeBruyne. Walcott has not made the improvements necessary to convince, and his defensive weaknesses are so glaring that it's unwise to leave him on the field with Ozil, who also doesn't play much defense but whose vision and passing make his the first name on the team sheet when he's healthy. Iwobi can start for us next year. I'm warming to Joel Campbell. Ramsey has to stay, and probably Wilshere too. Cazorla can still start but may have just one or two more years at the top. I don't know if Ox will be a part of the puzzle. I really thought he was going to be a star. Of course, we need to keep Alexis--he's magical. Welbeck showed real promise, but he's crocked until next spring. Giroud is very good, puts in the work, and combines well, but he's struggled to score for long stretches. You can't depend on a lone striker who can go 15 games without a goal. Walcott's a disaster up there. I can't see Stan Kroenke signing a check for 75M pounds, though, so will it be another season of make do? Sanogo isn't burning up the Championship with Charlton. (I still want to buy Gestede from Villa. I bet he'd get on the end of Ozil's passes. I bet we could get him cheap, too.)
In view of the fabulous sums that the other big clubs will be spending, it will be hard to improve enough to outcompete everyone. But I can dream.
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Sunday, May 15, 2016
The Saint That Came Marching In, and Arsenal 4 - 0 Aston Villa
That would be St. Totteringham. The title chase was too much for the young Spurs, and their meltdown continued with a truly astonishing 5-1 collapse against a relegated 10-man Newcastle. A more seasoned squad would not have picked up the crucial suspensions they did (Delli Alli and Dembele) and would have gone about their business in a more professional manner. Maybe next season they will. They'll have Champions' League money and prestige, and those players (if they aren't sold) will still be young and may even improve. But enough about them.
The day was Arsenal's. They were flat most of the game, probably because Wenger started Cazorla and Wilshere. They played well, but we were missing some speed of play at times. Villa played exactly as you'd expect them to; they were the perfect team to finish the season with. They did get two or three really good chances, but Cech did not have to do anything heroic to earn his clean sheet (tops in the EPL despite missing some games). The Gunners could have had twice as many goals had they not overpassed when in shooting range. But three points from a 4-0 drubbing is nothing to complain about. I predicted Giroud might prosper if Villa bunkered in, and he delivered. The goals were very well taken. Elneny, Cazorla, Ozil, and Alexis could have been on the scoresheet too had they finished that well. I don't know if he got on the scoresheet for it, but Mikel Arteta put the finishing touch on this game in injury time with a powerful shot that hit the crossbar and bounced in off the Villa GK. He cried. I hear he's going to City to coach under Guardiola--too bad. He's class all the way.
There will be more, but I am called away from the keyboard until much later tonight.
The day was Arsenal's. They were flat most of the game, probably because Wenger started Cazorla and Wilshere. They played well, but we were missing some speed of play at times. Villa played exactly as you'd expect them to; they were the perfect team to finish the season with. They did get two or three really good chances, but Cech did not have to do anything heroic to earn his clean sheet (tops in the EPL despite missing some games). The Gunners could have had twice as many goals had they not overpassed when in shooting range. But three points from a 4-0 drubbing is nothing to complain about. I predicted Giroud might prosper if Villa bunkered in, and he delivered. The goals were very well taken. Elneny, Cazorla, Ozil, and Alexis could have been on the scoresheet too had they finished that well. I don't know if he got on the scoresheet for it, but Mikel Arteta put the finishing touch on this game in injury time with a powerful shot that hit the crossbar and bounced in off the Villa GK. He cried. I hear he's going to City to coach under Guardiola--too bad. He's class all the way.
There will be more, but I am called away from the keyboard until much later tonight.
Sunday, May 8, 2016
Manchester City 2 - 2 Arsenal
First, wasn't this a great game? Both teams snapped into tackles, pressed relentlessly, pushed forward quickly. The referee (Lee Mason?) let them do it, too. He could easily have ruined this game by brandishing the yellow card more often. No one was being nasty. The only serious injury was Welbeck's and he did that to himself by making a tackle along the touchline. It must be said that City dominated play and the scoreline flatters Arsenal, but this is exactly what several teams have done to us this and prior years, and we got the needed result with maximum efficiency (two shots on target, two goals) and considerable flair (Alexis's goal was the best move in a game filled with highlights).
The midfield was a battleground. City dominated both for tactical reasons (they were the ones who needed three points) and personnel reasons (Aguero and de Bruyne were superb). Bellerin and Monreal stayed back, which was probably what Wenger wanted. City was more fluid in attack: Giroud took his more familiar pivot role when he wasn't in his own half defending, and Alexis wasn't connecting with his teammates quickly. Navas was wasteful or we'd have been in real trouble--Alexis left Monreal to deal with him most of the game. I can't be too critical about the City goals; they were fantastic strikes. Yes, the commentators said Kos should have flown out on Aguero on the first and Gabriel should have done some unspecified something on de Bruyne's shot. We did give away the ball before that second goal. But both teams were forced into numerous errors all game. I think everyone did their job this game.
The result is pretty good for us. All we have to do is tie Villa and we're in Champions' League. All we have to do to be in third is to beat Villa. It's entirely in our hands. United has a very difficult fixture at West Ham; I think they're actually going to lose. Bournemouth should present no problems for them on the final day. Speaking of which, Tottenham's loss at home to Southampton makes it possible for them to surrender second place to us it they lose at St James's Park. I'm hoping Sunderland lose in midweek to give Newcastle something to play for: survival. It's a long shot, sure, but I'll be paying attention to their scoreline, especially if Arsenal score early.
Liverpool has an excellent chance to qualify for ECL by winning Europa League. Klopp has already made himself a beloved figure in Liverpool; watch out next year. The fight for Europa League qualification next year is complicated, depending on whether United wins the FA Cup, and perhaps Liverpool winning Europa League. United looks like fifth place, but West Ham and Southampton are scrapping for sixth, with Liverpool right behind. Any two of them could miss out if Palace beats United in the FA Cup and Sevilla beats the Reds in their cup final. Or all three could be in Europe next year if those finals go the other way. Crazy.
I can't believe I'm this elated over a draw. We got the result and the men played well. Wilshere and Walcott did OK when they came on. I was happy Cazorla wasn't needed; I could just see him breaking something in the first five minutes he was on. Maybe after we're 2-0 up on Villa next week. And damn, we better beat Aston Villa. Everyone else is. They're "playing for pride" but if anyone on that team is still proud, they're delusional. I expect they'll bunker in and hope to hit on a counter somewhere. We'll try to draw them out, and if that doesn't work, penetrate and go for the jugular. It may be a good game for Giroud, who had a great game today (goal and assist!). No Ozil, I guess, but those are the breaks. (I would have bet on him to break the EPL assist record, but the chances he created were spurned.)
Already, the sound of checkbooks being opened all over England is deafening. Huge sums will be committed to buy the few difference-makers available. You know, I'd take a bargain basement flyer on Rudy Gestede while I pursued the top class strikers. I think he could add something to Arsenal.
The midfield was a battleground. City dominated both for tactical reasons (they were the ones who needed three points) and personnel reasons (Aguero and de Bruyne were superb). Bellerin and Monreal stayed back, which was probably what Wenger wanted. City was more fluid in attack: Giroud took his more familiar pivot role when he wasn't in his own half defending, and Alexis wasn't connecting with his teammates quickly. Navas was wasteful or we'd have been in real trouble--Alexis left Monreal to deal with him most of the game. I can't be too critical about the City goals; they were fantastic strikes. Yes, the commentators said Kos should have flown out on Aguero on the first and Gabriel should have done some unspecified something on de Bruyne's shot. We did give away the ball before that second goal. But both teams were forced into numerous errors all game. I think everyone did their job this game.
The result is pretty good for us. All we have to do is tie Villa and we're in Champions' League. All we have to do to be in third is to beat Villa. It's entirely in our hands. United has a very difficult fixture at West Ham; I think they're actually going to lose. Bournemouth should present no problems for them on the final day. Speaking of which, Tottenham's loss at home to Southampton makes it possible for them to surrender second place to us it they lose at St James's Park. I'm hoping Sunderland lose in midweek to give Newcastle something to play for: survival. It's a long shot, sure, but I'll be paying attention to their scoreline, especially if Arsenal score early.
Liverpool has an excellent chance to qualify for ECL by winning Europa League. Klopp has already made himself a beloved figure in Liverpool; watch out next year. The fight for Europa League qualification next year is complicated, depending on whether United wins the FA Cup, and perhaps Liverpool winning Europa League. United looks like fifth place, but West Ham and Southampton are scrapping for sixth, with Liverpool right behind. Any two of them could miss out if Palace beats United in the FA Cup and Sevilla beats the Reds in their cup final. Or all three could be in Europe next year if those finals go the other way. Crazy.
I can't believe I'm this elated over a draw. We got the result and the men played well. Wilshere and Walcott did OK when they came on. I was happy Cazorla wasn't needed; I could just see him breaking something in the first five minutes he was on. Maybe after we're 2-0 up on Villa next week. And damn, we better beat Aston Villa. Everyone else is. They're "playing for pride" but if anyone on that team is still proud, they're delusional. I expect they'll bunker in and hope to hit on a counter somewhere. We'll try to draw them out, and if that doesn't work, penetrate and go for the jugular. It may be a good game for Giroud, who had a great game today (goal and assist!). No Ozil, I guess, but those are the breaks. (I would have bet on him to break the EPL assist record, but the chances he created were spurned.)
Already, the sound of checkbooks being opened all over England is deafening. Huge sums will be committed to buy the few difference-makers available. You know, I'd take a bargain basement flyer on Rudy Gestede while I pursued the top class strikers. I think he could add something to Arsenal.
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Poor Tottenham!
The Spurs' meltdown was thoroughly enjoyable. Chelsea supporters seemed primed for the affair and were well supplied with taunting signs and chants. The 84th minute equalizer by Hazard was magnificent. Best of all was the EPL season record nine yellow cards for a Spurs side that completely lost their cool for the occasion. They'll need to gather themselves together and win one of their next two to assure second place. In the not-terribly-unlikely event that Arsenal beats City and Villa, Spurs will need three points to avoid another St Totteringham's Day. Now wouldn't that be perfect?
I'll get to Leicester in a moment. But first I want to praise Tottenham. Their goal differential of +39 is 9 better than the next best (Leicester and Man City), powered mainly by their excellent defensive record (only 28 scored on them all season) but also by their 67 goals, only one fewer than top-scoring City. They're the youngest team in the league and have some of England's brightest stars. It's easy to see Delli Alli, Harry Kane, and Eric Dier as permanent fixtures in the national team. Once, it was Walcott, Wilshere, and the Ox who looked like England's future; that ship has sailed--and sunk. Were I Hodgson, I doubt I'd bring any Arsenal players to Europe. Pochettino is an excellent manager, just the sort of man Arsenal would be advised to look for after Wenger plays out his contract next year. I expect him to be with Spurs for a long time. The temptation will be strong to sell a couple of players now, when their value might be at a peak. They have their new stadium to finance, and they've been a selling club for a while now (Berbatov, Modric, Bale). But they may break precedent and try to lock this group down for the next few years. They'll be in the mix for top four next season, and it ought to be quite a scramble. Both Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, and (arguably) Chelsea and West Ham should be hopeful of at least a top four position.
But not, I think, Leicester. I admit I was dead wrong about them winning the league. But I think I was right when I said that if Vardy and Mahrez were injured or out of form, they'd be Stoke. They won because their players did not get hurt, and they stayed in form. At the 35th game, the commentators noted that Ranieri had made just 20 changes all year, a phenomenally low number, just one fourth of the previous EPL low of 80. Unless drug tests show rampant steroid use, we can thank the lack of European football, a good training staff, and luck for that. They don't have many internationals, which also helps. Remember how many times van Persie or Wilshere came back from a friendly with a season-ruining injury?
Speaking of training staffs, let's tip out hats to Shad Forsythe, who kept the Gunners healthier than they've been in a while (I haven't seen the stats on it, so maybe I'm wrong). You can't count Rosicky or Wilshere; they'd get injured walking to the mailbox. Cazorla's was the really damaging injury, and he's at the age where something that serious doesn't heal quickly (he was left on the field too long after his injury too).
Our problem this year was pretty obviously down to our being the only club in Europe's top five leagues that did not buy an outfield player. It was inexplicable at the time and it still is. Top strikers are expensive, yes, but so is not having one. I love Olivier Giroud, but he was never in Aguero's class (for instance). Another dozen goals and Arsenal would have won the league.
Roma won yesterday too, so they will join champions Juve and runner-up Napoli in Champions' League, and Fiorentina will be in Europa League. (Like last year.) So Italy has made me happy. I will do a short tribute to Juventus in a future post; they had a truly remarkable season, coming within a couple minutes of eliminating Bayern from the Champions' League in addition to their domestic exploits.
I'll get to Leicester in a moment. But first I want to praise Tottenham. Their goal differential of +39 is 9 better than the next best (Leicester and Man City), powered mainly by their excellent defensive record (only 28 scored on them all season) but also by their 67 goals, only one fewer than top-scoring City. They're the youngest team in the league and have some of England's brightest stars. It's easy to see Delli Alli, Harry Kane, and Eric Dier as permanent fixtures in the national team. Once, it was Walcott, Wilshere, and the Ox who looked like England's future; that ship has sailed--and sunk. Were I Hodgson, I doubt I'd bring any Arsenal players to Europe. Pochettino is an excellent manager, just the sort of man Arsenal would be advised to look for after Wenger plays out his contract next year. I expect him to be with Spurs for a long time. The temptation will be strong to sell a couple of players now, when their value might be at a peak. They have their new stadium to finance, and they've been a selling club for a while now (Berbatov, Modric, Bale). But they may break precedent and try to lock this group down for the next few years. They'll be in the mix for top four next season, and it ought to be quite a scramble. Both Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, and (arguably) Chelsea and West Ham should be hopeful of at least a top four position.
But not, I think, Leicester. I admit I was dead wrong about them winning the league. But I think I was right when I said that if Vardy and Mahrez were injured or out of form, they'd be Stoke. They won because their players did not get hurt, and they stayed in form. At the 35th game, the commentators noted that Ranieri had made just 20 changes all year, a phenomenally low number, just one fourth of the previous EPL low of 80. Unless drug tests show rampant steroid use, we can thank the lack of European football, a good training staff, and luck for that. They don't have many internationals, which also helps. Remember how many times van Persie or Wilshere came back from a friendly with a season-ruining injury?
Speaking of training staffs, let's tip out hats to Shad Forsythe, who kept the Gunners healthier than they've been in a while (I haven't seen the stats on it, so maybe I'm wrong). You can't count Rosicky or Wilshere; they'd get injured walking to the mailbox. Cazorla's was the really damaging injury, and he's at the age where something that serious doesn't heal quickly (he was left on the field too long after his injury too).
Our problem this year was pretty obviously down to our being the only club in Europe's top five leagues that did not buy an outfield player. It was inexplicable at the time and it still is. Top strikers are expensive, yes, but so is not having one. I love Olivier Giroud, but he was never in Aguero's class (for instance). Another dozen goals and Arsenal would have won the league.
Roma won yesterday too, so they will join champions Juve and runner-up Napoli in Champions' League, and Fiorentina will be in Europa League. (Like last year.) So Italy has made me happy. I will do a short tribute to Juventus in a future post; they had a truly remarkable season, coming within a couple minutes of eliminating Bayern from the Champions' League in addition to their domestic exploits.
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Good Weekend!
Despite our playing poorly yesterday, this weekend saw us increase our lead over United by two points (to seven) and establish a lead of three points over City. City still has a five-goal advantage on us in goal difference, and United has a game in hand, albeit a vastly inferior goal difference. Our odds of securing Champions' League qualification, already good, just went up. All we have to do now to secure 4th is win one more game. 4 points gives us 3rd; I think even two points would do that. Ideally, we'd beat City, but a draw should be enough, given that we play Villa at home on the last day.
The Leicester-Man U game was an excellent spectacle, wasn't it? It was truly end to end, possibly because one point was really not much good to either side. Both teams were up for it, and it was a tough game to officiate. I can't understand how Marouane Fellaini stays on the field. He's dirty, aggressive, and so ugly you'd think referees would red card him just to avoid having to look at him anymore. Besides his assault on the not-entirely-innocent Robert Huth, two pivotal fouls were not called (one on each side) and they spotted a late free kick just outside the Leicester area when it happened just inside. The ref (Oliver?) lost control of the game in the first half and despite handing out yellows like crazy he couldn't get it back in the second. But the result was a fair one, I thought.
For City, I hope we don't start Giroud. Welbeck's movement would make him far more useful. I also would start Coquelin in place of Ramsey. I assume Per is gone for the season with hamstring problems, so it's Gabriel and Koscielny at the back. I wouldn't mind seeing Campbell get a run-in if Iwobi or Alexis are deemed too out of form. Joel plays both ways, and we will need that.
The Leicester-Man U game was an excellent spectacle, wasn't it? It was truly end to end, possibly because one point was really not much good to either side. Both teams were up for it, and it was a tough game to officiate. I can't understand how Marouane Fellaini stays on the field. He's dirty, aggressive, and so ugly you'd think referees would red card him just to avoid having to look at him anymore. Besides his assault on the not-entirely-innocent Robert Huth, two pivotal fouls were not called (one on each side) and they spotted a late free kick just outside the Leicester area when it happened just inside. The ref (Oliver?) lost control of the game in the first half and despite handing out yellows like crazy he couldn't get it back in the second. But the result was a fair one, I thought.
For City, I hope we don't start Giroud. Welbeck's movement would make him far more useful. I also would start Coquelin in place of Ramsey. I assume Per is gone for the season with hamstring problems, so it's Gabriel and Koscielny at the back. I wouldn't mind seeing Campbell get a run-in if Iwobi or Alexis are deemed too out of form. Joel plays both ways, and we will need that.
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