Don't Tell Me the Odds

 Arseblog's stats guy posted that Arsenal is a favorite to get 4th place--64% according to his model.  Well, we won't be playing in his computer.  We'll be playing actual teams, who are healthy or injured (just like us), and more or less motivated due to relegation scraps or contract situations or new coaches, and which (just like us) encounter dips or surges in form.  We play West Ham, Man U, and Spuds, all opportunities for either us or a rival to make huge progress or suffer a huge setback.  Arteta and every other coach goes game by game, trying to win every one, and that's the only way to approach this run-in.  Europe wants us to return, I just know it.  I don't want to disappoint them.  One step at a time, please.

Of course, stumbles like United's at home against sorry Watford help.  They're in fourth, being two points better than us, but having played three more games.  West Ham and Wolves are playing now (scoreless early in the second half) and one or both will drop points (I'm hoping for a draw, of course).  I won't cry if we finish fifth; Europa League is still Europe, if a less lucrative tournament than Champions' League.  But eighth would be a dismal failure, our having been eighth the last two seasons.  We're better, especially defensively, and we should finish higher.

That we are out of all the tournaments does simplify matters for Arteta.  His sole focus will be on the league, whereas United (for instance) will be dividing effort and attention.  But ultimately, we want to have that sort of problem next year, in the hunt for multiple trophies.  Fingers crossed.

Crystal Palace 1 Burnley 1

 Crystal Palace does all the scoring - a goal by Jeffrey Schlupp, an own goal by Luka Milivojevic.  Several other threats from both sides that came to nothing after that.  The 12th draw this year by the Palace.  

Another Nail-Biter, Another Three Points From Wolves: Arsenal 2 - 1 Wolves

 I won't lie.  I thought Arsenal would win this one comfortably.  We hung on at Molineux playing with ten men and won.  At home, I figured we should handle them.  But a dreadful back-pass after ten minutes put us in a hole.  Wolves had not lost a game in which they took a 1-0 lead for three and a half years--44 such games.  Their defense is by far the best in the Premier League, and now they could sit back and hit us on the break while we huffed and puffed and tried to score.  They were strong and resolute, but with eight minutes left we finally got our equalizer from Pepe.  Wolves had been guilty of so much time wasting that we got another six minutes of stoppage time, and in the sixth minute, a fortunate split-second sequence turned a Lacazette close range mis-hit into a goal via two deflections off Wolves players.  2-1 to the Arsenal, and now Wolves are in our rear view mirror for the moment, five points back having played one more game than us.  This was a tough challenge, and there will be several more in the next 14 games, but our top four aspirations can become reality with no help from the rest of the league, so long as we keep winning.

Wins like this can really energize a squad.  Tomiyasu is still unavailable due to a calf injury, but Cedric is deputising adequately.  For me, the really hopeful sign was Pepe coming off the bench and rescuing us, and with an assist from Eddie Nketieh too.  Then Laca gets the winner--perfect!  We'll need substantive contributions from all of those attacking players.  When the fixture list gets crowded, Saka will have to sit out a game here and there, and it's good to know that Nicolas Pepe can still put the ball past a keeper.

Crystal Palace 4 Watford 1

 Hapless Watford goes down hard again.  Crystal Palace goes back to the middle of the table.   Watford is now four points from safety, having played more games than the teams ahead of them as well, and has a rough road ahead if they are to avoid relegation. Zaha ends a drought and scores twice.   

Arsenal 2 - 1 Brentford

 The Gunners dominated possession, shots, and chances, and (of course) had several penalty shouts waved off.  Two fine strikes from medium distance (ESR and Saka) were enough to make sure of the three points, though it was disappointing to concede a sloppy consolation at the end to spoil the clean sheet.  West Ham dropped two points against Newcastle (Joe Willock scored his first for the Magpies this season to equalize), but Tottenham were sensational in a back and forth contest at the Etihad to take an unlikely three points against the champions.  Top four dreams are very much in the realm of possibility, but with 15 games to play anything can happen.  A few losses and we could be staring at no European football; winning those games could send us to a Champions League play-in.

Crystal Palace gave up a late goal to Chelsea at Selhurst, drifting down in the table.  There are seven teams below them, so it would be quite a collapse for them to be relegated, and they are just too good to go down, I hope.  Newcastle's big spending seems to have bought them a Premier League spot next year, unfortunately.  Everton, Leeds, and Brentford have a realistic chance of going down, if Watford and/or Burnley get hot, but those two and Norwich look like favorites for the drop.

It's been quite a season and it may just get more interesting, with City's loss today.  Liverpool is just six back, with a game in hand, and a game against the champions.  Both have imposing goal differentials that are very close.  Chelsea seems nailed on for third place, and then we get into the scramble for fourth, which is too close to call.  West Ham is fading, and Wolves need to start winning, but they're in the thick of it.  Man U and Spurs are in prime position with Arsenal.  One of those five will get no European football.  One will go to Europa Conference League, the kiddie table.  Two get Europa League tickets (unless an outsider wins the FA Cup), and just one gets the big prize, a lucrative date with Europe's elite in the ECL. 

Notts County beat Eastleigh to stay in the hunt for a promotion playoff spot.  That's a real dogfight.

Crystal Palace Under 18s 5 Arsenal U18s 0

 The old guys may be slumping, but the U18s are doing well  

Overlooked players; the top defenders

 Strikers get all the big money, but preventing goals matters, too 

Mostly we hear about these guys when they screw up and get a foul, but we all want to have one of them on our team  .  

Whew! Wolves 0 - 1 Arsenal

 Our defense was good enough to keep Wolves out for the game, even with the last 27 minutes a man down.  A first half Gabriel tap-in off a corner kick scramble was good for an important three points against a close rival.  The yellow cards kept coming, with Partey, Xhaka (of course), and Gabriel collecting one each until Martinelli did them one better by picking up two from Referee Martin Oliver in three seconds.  It's never happened before that anyone can remember, and it was weird, but Martinelli was totally out of line and stupid.  Fortunately, it did not cost us the points, due to Wolves' lack of punch.

We edge up to fifth, with two games in hand vs 4th place West Ham.  Hot on our heels is Man U and Tottenham, with Wolves just five points back.  There is very little margin for error.

We have nine days until we face Brentford, who embarrassed us on opening day 2-0.  Martinelli hasn't been scoring anyway; I hope Pepe gets a run out.  Lacazette seems to have run out of gas.  He works hard but the end product is not there when he gets in position.  He missed a golden chance today.  The only other central striker on our rolls is Eddie Nketieh, who has not scored in the league this year (albeit with not a lot of minutes played).  Heck, Laca is already a "false nine" so why not play that way, with a fluid front four of Pepe, Saka, Odegaard, and Smith-Rowe?  Tierney is fully capable of joining in the attack as well.  Anytime you want a shot from distance, you can call on Partey or Xhaka, especially if you want to see the ball go a few yards over the bar.

Anyway, we needed this.  If Tomiyasu gets healthy, we can play even better,

Table Talk

 It's all to play for with 17 games to go (for Arsenal anyway).  Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea (in that order) look like taking the automatic Champions' League spots.  But positions 4 through 8 are a virtual tie.  #4 West Ham and #5 Man U have played more games than the pack of Arsenal, Tottenham, and Wolves just behind them.  Spurs lost a chance to put themselves in good position today by losing to Southampton.  When these five teams play each other, it'll decide who goes to ECL, Europa League, Europa Conference, or nowhere.  I've been skeptical about West Ham, and hope they fade.  United is too talented to drop far, aren't they?  Wolves have a thin squad; can they hang with the richer clubs?  Speaking of thin squads, Arsenal left themselves no room for injury problems by clearing out squad players while buying no one.  Tottenham ought to be playing better; I hope they continue being so Spursy. 

Sadly, Newcastle seems to have bought their way out of relegation in the last window.  Everton is in free fall and may save one of Norwich or Burnley from the drop; I think Watford is doomed.

Mid-table seems to be a popular place, as crowded as the European slot chasers, with the potential for either making a run at 7th or dropping into a relegation battle.

It's going to be interesting.