Monday, December 28, 2015

Arsenal 2 - 0 Bournemouth

A few changes were made to freshen up the team.  Gibbs came in for Monreal, Gabriel for Koscielny, AOC for Campbell, and Chambers for Flamini, who had a slight ankle problem.  Whatever he said to the men, it worked.  After a slow start, Arsenal imposed themselves on their newly promoted opponents, and they simply could not keep up.  We could have had five goals, but I'm happy for the clean sheet for Cech; it gives him the EPL record.  (Is anyone else annoyed that they don't consider top division games prior to the formation of the EPL for records?  It's ridiculous.)  Ozil got another assist, on a header by Gabriel from his corner, and he scored on this gem of a goal, assisted by Giroud.  There were three or four clear-cut chances for more, but we got the three points and that's what counts.

Arseblog liked Chambers in the Coquelin/Flamini role, but I still remain unconvinced.  He seems slow to me, both physically and in his decisionmaking.  I think he'd be passed and bullied by a better midfield than Bournemouth's.  They were pretty bad today.  The smaller clubs have trouble with crowded schedules, but then so did we.

We need to pick it up.  There's no getting around the fact that we dropped a lot of points in November and December that we should have won.  Southampton absolutely dominated us...Southampton!  Alexis can't come back fast enough.  Ramsey has been a rock, and Theo is coming along.  The Ox showed signs of life today.  But we're too dependent on one man's incredible skills.  16 assists!  Incredible.  The bright spot, of course, is that no one else has been winning consistently either.  Halfway through, and at 39 points (pending Leicester's game in hand) we're leading the league.  I'm not a stats guy, but that has to be a really low total for a first half leader.  Hell, Tottenham is in 3rd (pending Man City's game in hand).  They couldn't win the league, could they?  This year, they might.  They have that "team of destiny" mojo, it seems to me.  It's up to us to break their hearts, as usual.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

Southampton 4 - 0 Arsenal

Who would have predicted this result?  The Saints had been losing regularly, and the Gunners had been winning.  But today, Southampton completely outplayed Arsenal all game long.  The scoreline did not flatter the home team; it could have easily been 6-0.  Arsenal never really looked threatening.  Ramsey worked hardest, but no one else matched the energy levels shown by the Saints.  Players who looked commanding against Man City seemed slow and weak today.  Southampton pressed us all over the field, a tactic that should have backfired disastrously as we bypassed them with ease.  But it was as though they had a two-man advantage.  I'm not able to figure this out, and I really don't want to think about it any more.  Our goal differential has gone from best in the league to third or fourth best and we've allowed City to get back to within a point and Spurs to get within four.  If this result was not a crazy one-off, there is no chance we're winning the league this year.  Alexis will probably be back soon, but Cazorla, Coquelin, and Wilshere are not going to be fit until the end of the season approaches.  No way will Stan Kroenke spring for big-time assistance even if Wenger asks for it.

Bournemouth will not be scared of us, that's for sure.  No one will.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

3 - 5 - 2 Again

Our midfielders are taking a beating, and we have excellent defenders on the bench.  I really think a 3-5-2 (OK, 3-3-3-1, 3-6-1, whatever)  formation should be considered.


Arsenal frequently uses one or the other fullback (or both) for width, so they're far up the field when we lose the ball.  The winger is supposed to be alert to this, and of course the covering/holding mids.  The advantage of this scheme is that Bellerin can bomb forward more often, knowing Gabriel has the area behind him.  Mertesacker is not called on to chase or mark as often.  Obviously, the wingbacks still have important defensive duties.  The personnel we have are, I think, very well suited to this tactical approach.

The disadvantage is that Aaron Ramsey is being asked to stay home, at least at first.  When we're on top, I think he'll have license to get as far forward as he likes, and the wingbacks can pinch in a bit to make it very hard to go through our middle.  The Walcott/Alexis/Campbell positions can interchange like they do now.  (Ox subs in here.)  If Mesut has to be rested, Ramsey will move up and Flam takes his place.  Note that we can do this and still have excellent cover at every defensive position.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Arsenal 2 - 1 Manchester City

What a good game.  It was one of those that could have been 5-3 had both teams taken their best chances, but three excellent shots did find the back of the net, and fortunately two of them beat Joe Hart, and only one beat Petr Cech.  It seemed as though both teams were sent out to defend first, but could not restrain themselves from expressing their natural characters.  The game became quite open for several stretches, then one or the other side would bunker in for a while.

Ozil added two assists to his otherworldly total.  He has 15 in 16 games; the EPL record is 20 (in 38, of course).  If he stays healthy, he should smash it.  The first was a pass that looked intended for Monreal cutting in from the wing, but Theo intercepted it, took a step inside, and lashed it inside the far post past a flailing Hart in the 33rd minute.  After a flurry of action, Arsenal latched onto a loose ball and Ozil fed Giroud peeling around the center back pair, and he spanked it first-time through Hart's legs.  Check out the flight of this shot--it was struck very sweetly.  What a dream end to a fine half of football.

Arsenal came out flying in the second half and spurned a couple chances to make it 3-0, living dangerously rather than playing a safety first strategy.  Frankly, I liked that.  When we did bunker in, we seemed to be inviting City on.  (On corner kicks, why the heck don't we station Walcott on the center line, and hoist any clearance in his general direction?  It's not as though he's likely to contribute to defending a kick into the box, and he'd keep their two fullbacks occupied.)  Yaya Toure eventually woke up and placed an absolutely perfect shot past a well-positioned Flamini into the top corner--Cech could only watch.  The final stages of the game became rather tense as the points were in jeopardy, but we retained possession for most of extra time and City did not seem likely to score again.

All in all, this was the kind of gritty home performance we needed.  Both teams were missing key players, though Aguero was back.  City hadn't scored in a while and their away form has been awful, so this was one we had to win if we have pretensions to winning the league.  And we did win.  Every Gunner played well.  Walcott needed that goal; it has to help him down the line.  Ramsey is looking desperate to score, and is doing everything but finish his chances.  Flamini got high marks for his work rate and positional sense, as well as his lively direction to the other midfielders.  He sure likes to point and yell--he's like a young French Bernie Sanders.  Joel should have scored two today, but he contributed all game, putting himself about all over the right side of the field.  (I know the idea is to have him and Theo cut across the field and shoot with their strong foot, but I still like right-footers on the right and left-footers on the left.  Eh.)  Giroud was magnificent--he's a beast and a beauty all in one.  Ozil--sublime!  The defensive line was excellent, all of them, and so was Cech.  Great team effort.  The subs contributed energy but did not distinguish themselves.  Gibbs misplaced some passes, and the Ox just can't find his rhythm.

Wenger's team selection and tactics were better than Pellegrini's; this was his victory as much as anyone's.  There's a good feeling around the club now.  Alexis is sorely missed, and it looks as though Coquelin and Cazorla will be out even longer, but the guys who can play are doing a very good job.  And we are super strong on defense--Gabriel, Gibbs, and Debuchy can't even get on the field except as late defensive substitutes, if then.  And those guys would start on most EPL teams.

We're still two back of Leicester, but they're a small team with a crowded schedule facing them, and I like our chances of passing them.  City is four back and there's a crowd sitting seven points back, so dropping points is not something we can afford to do much the rest of the way.

Merry Christmas.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Mourinho, Wenger

What took Chelsea so long?  It was obvious that Mourinho had completely lost the dressing room.  His players, for the most part, just did not like him.  He's shown great tactical skill over the years, and lots of his players loved him, but when things go sour he blames the players.  His last post-game interview was disgraceful.  He said that he'd made the players good enough to win last year, playing "above their level," but this season they betrayed his efforts by failing to do what he told them.  That's unforgiveable.  And now he's gone, taking another 8 or 12 million pounds of Roman Abramovich's money with him.  I hope he goes to Russia and we never see him again.

It makes one appreciate the boss we have at Arsenal.  Have you ever heard him hang a player out to dry?  Ospina nearly cost us Champions' League progression.  Bendtner was a nonstop arrogant tool.  Santos was awful in nearly every way.  He's had a lot of cause to call out a player for lack of effort or for screwing up (say, smoking).  But he lets his team selection speak for him, refuses to place the blame for a bad result on the players, and focuses on the next game.  Yes, he's kicked a water bottle or two, and has earned a touchline ban for complaining about the refereeing.  But he's one of the sport's gentlemen and we can all be proud to be represented by him.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Aston Villa 0 - 2 Arsenal -- and the ECL Draw

After a do-or-die midweek performance in Europe, it was inevitable that there would be a letdown in the league this weekend.  It happened to all the clubs who played in the Champions' League and Europa League.  Fortunately, we had Villa on Sunday, and our "C" game was more than enough to outclass them.  I thought we were pretty awful, frankly.  However, we were gifted the first goal when Hutton dragged Theo back on his excellent gather-and-run down the left.  He wasn't going to score from that angle and he didn't have enough support, so the obvious foul was crazy.  Giroud felt no nerves on the PK, sending Guzan the wrong way and slotting it into the empty half of the goal.  The second goal looked majestic, but:  1)  Ramsey's steal that started it was closer to a foul (though it wasn't a foul) than Arteta's similar lunge that was penalized and resulted in the first West Brom goal a few weeks ago; and 2) that had to be the worst defense on a breakaway I have ever seen.  A 4-on-4 was transformed into a 3-on-1 by one easy, slow Walcott pass almost straight up the field.  A two goal lead was insurmountable by the inept Villa attack, and their players knew it.  Another assist for Mesut--that's 13!  Henry has the EPL record with 20, but that's looking shaky.  Ozil has the highest assist-per-game ratio in EPL history.  It's easy to see why--he's magic.

Hey, how about a January loan of Debuchy to Villa?  The three Frenchmen can surely work out this win-win-win deal.  Wenger owes Remi Garde for his advice to take the Villa job.

What a wonderful weekend.  Spuds and United lose to low-ranking opponents, and Liverpool drops points again.  Man City won, but we'll have our shot at them next Monday.  Leicester is not going to win the league.  They're a great story, and I know they don't have European football to distract or wear them out, but they're one Mahrez hamstring pull or Vardy knee strain away from being Stoke.  If they can get through the crowded "festive period" fixture list in good shape, I may reassess that judgment.  But they are going to start dropping points.

Barcelona.  Hmmm.  You know, I don't mind that draw.  I was delighted with the Monaco draw last year, and we took them lightly and were punished.  We won't take Barca lightly.  And we can beat them, too, especially in February after Alexis is back and up to speed.  I admit to being worried about Flamini doing enough to break up Barca's play.  They will score.  We have to score more, and I believe we can.  La Liga is almost as competitive this year as the Premier League, so they won't be able to concentrate solely on the ECL.  We win 2-1 at the Emirates and lose 2-3 away, and go through on away goals for once.  Alexis, Walcott, Ramsey, and Giroud get one goal each.  I haven't gotten around to assigning assists, but you can count on at least one being from Ozil.

We'd probably have to play Barca eventually if we progressed, so why not right away?  If we lose, we won't have those European games to distract us anymore, and no one will say it was a disgrace to lose to Barcelona (unless it's by six goals).  If we win, we should be brimming with confidence and become one of the favorites to take the cup.  I don't see a downside.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Olympiakos 0 - 3 Arsenal

My last post included some erroneous predictions.  Giroud was the hero, not Ramsey.  In my defense, I did get the winning margin correct, there was a PK goal, and Ramsey got an assist.  I'm delighted my optimism was warranted.  We played very well, especially Giroud, whose ill discipline in Zagreb was the main reason we were in this hole to start with.  He redeemed himself totally.  Now all that remains is for Alexis to heal, Wilshere and Welbeck to return, and to beat whomever we draw in that first round.  I sure hope it's not Real or Barca.

A bonus is having Manchester United play Thursday nights in the Europa League.

Walcott is starting to look like his pre-injury self, which is welcome (though I wish he'd learn to play defense), especially now that Ox seems to be having a crisis of confidence.  I'm really impressed with Ramsey these days.  Our back four does what they have to, on offense as well as defense.  Cech is awesome.  Boy was I wrong about passing on him and keeping Szczesny.  And Joel Campbell!  It took a series of injuries, but he bided his time and when it came he seized it with both hands.  I actually think he could be our striker in a pinch.  Maybe I missed it, but I don't remember any Debuchy-like whining about not starting from Joel.  In his current form, he should start ahead of Walcott and Ox when Alexis comes back.  Ozil was carrying a slight injury but still did his job beautifully--what a pro.

Back to the league!  We're coping with the injuries, but we sure miss Coquelin.  Flamini has done the business, but he hasn't shown the athletic ability or the discipline of the guy he's replacing.  Every game is an adventure for every club.  The first side to find its groove could run away from the others and not get caught.  Please let it be us!

Monday, December 7, 2015

Optimistic About Athens

Given that we've lost the last three times we went to Olympiakos, it would seem that confidence about advancing to the knockout stages of Champions' League is not merited.  But I'm strangely optimistic.  My predicted man of the match is Ramsey.  His combination of power and close control will be required to break down a tough defense in lockdown mode.  Given that we'll be pouring forward, Cech will be called upon to make some clutch saves.  I'm going to go all out and predict a 4-1 win.  Two Ramsey goals from the run of play, Kos scrambles one in off a corner, and a PK.  They get one on the counter.

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Arsenal 3 - 1 Sunderland

We needed to get all three points today, and we did.  Arsenal players found the back of the net four times, three time in the right goal.  Giroud's own goal denied Cech his record-tying clean sheet, and Sunderland missed a few golden opportunities to make this the third disastrous outing in a row for the Gunners.  But two really fine finishes by Joel Campbell and Giroud put us in front, the last time for good, and a rebound goal from Ramsey at the death removed all doubt.  In truth, Arsenal looked increasingly comfortable as the game ground on.  Sunderland had won their last two, but this was not going to be their day.  Man City lost, and Man U and Tottenham drew, so Arsenal sits in second, two back of Leicester and just a point above the Manchester clubs.  Bonus:  Chelsea lost to Bournemouth at the Bridge, and Mourinho could be fired any minute now.

Positives:
-  No one got injured!
-  Campbell played well
-  Ramsey is his old self, and it seems as though he'll be scoring again if he keeps getting opportunities.  He missed by a foot on his first good opportunity, hit the keeper on his second, and was just a half step ahead of the ball on another.  It's coming.
-  Flamini did well.
-  Ozil got another assist.
-  Walcott got a half hour and looked pretty decent.

Negatives:
-  AOC was poor.
-  We allowed Sunderland too many really good opportunities.  Had they finished them, they could have won this game.

I don't see this team (and it will probably be the same lineup) traveling to Greece and potting three goals, but you never know.  Giroud will be a handful, and if we can get some penetration from our mids, we could get a penalty to help us.  Alexis will be a huge miss.  Campbell may help us by cluing Wenger in on some info on the players, and he'll be motivated to show up well in front of the club he played for a couple years back.  Here's hoping we get a little luck and the guys are in top form.  Europa League is not ideal.

If no one else catches fire, Arsenal still has a shot at the Premiership.  I just can't see Leicester keeping this up.  We'll get Coquelin and Alexis back early next year, maybe Wilshere and Welbeck too.  There's always the transfer window.  Realistically, Arteta and Rosicky will be passengers even if they do get healthy.  And then there's the Cech factor.