The FA Cup, and the Rest of the Season

I watched two excellent FA Cup ties this week:  West Ham beating Liverpool in the added time of extra time and West Brom beating Peterborough with their final penalty kick after extra time.  Great stuff.  I've read that this competition has lost its luster, but I don't believe that.  For teams that are in relegation battles, maybe it's not a top priority, but that takes nothing away from the drama for me.  It's still huge for nearly every team in it, big or small.  Arsenal's last two wins were fantastic.  None of the players or coaches I saw this week looked disinterested.  In fact, these games were as hotly contested as any league contest I saw this season.

Let's not forget the role this competition plays in building and testing the squads, especially at the big clubs where playing time is at a premium for young players and some on the fringes.  It's exciting to see someone like Alex Iwobi perform on this big stage, with elimination staring at us.  And it's a reminder of how grit, organization, and effort can beat talent and reputation on a given day.I'll be following the FA Cup, as always, even if the Gunners are eliminated.

Okay, here we are, five points back of Leicester and behind Tottenham on goal differential, and just one above Manchester City.  I wrote earlier that the Spurs look like a "team of destiny" and I have not changed my mind.  They have the league's best defense and GD, and that did not happen by accident.  This may be their year, and they will try as hard as they can to break their 55 year silverware drought before they enter their "pay for the new stadium" years.  Pochettino has found the magic formula.  It seems that he did best by offloading tools like Adebayor and Townsend.  I think they're vulnerable, but the fact is that they look pretty good these days and will take some beating.

Sunday is, obviously, key.  A loss at home to the Foxes puts us nearly out of touch with the top.  Ideally, we'll beat Leicester and City will hold Spuds to a draw, but I'll settle for just a Gunners win.  Neutrals all understandably want Leicester to win the league, but I'm not a neutral.  If it's down to them and Tottenham, I'll root for the Foxes with all my strength, but Arsenal can win this thing.  Here's our remaining schedule, without the matches that we'd play were we to win future knockout contests.

February 2016

Show last 5 matches and coverage	Competition	Fixture	Date	Kick-off	Status
	Premier League	ArsenalvLeicester	Sun 14 Feb	12:00
	FA Cup - Fifth Round	ArsenalvHull	Sat 20 Feb	12:45
	Champions League -Round of 16	ArsenalvBarcelona	Tue 23 Feb	19:45
	Premier League	Man UtdvArsenal	Sun 28 Feb	14:05

March 2016

Show last 5 matches and coverage	Competition	Fixture	Date	Kick-off	Status
	Premier League	ArsenalvSwansea	Wed 2 Mar	19:45
	Premier League	TottenhamvArsenal	Sat 5 Mar	12:45
	Premier League	ArsenalvWest Brom	Sat 12 Mar	17:30
	Champions League -Round of 16	BarcelonavArsenal	Wed 16 Mar	19:45
	Premier League	EvertonvArsenal	Sat 19 Mar	12:45

April 2016

Show last 5 matches and coverage	Competition	Fixture	Date	Kick-off	Status
	Premier League	ArsenalvWatford	Sat 2 Apr	15:00
	Premier League	West HamvArsenal	Sat 9 Apr	15:00
	Premier League	ArsenalvCrystal Palace	Sat 16 Apr	15:00
	Premier League	SunderlandvArsenal	Sat 23 Apr	15:00
	Premier League	ArsenalvNorwich	Sat 30 Apr	15:00

May 2016

Show last 5 matches and coverage	Competition	Fixture	Date	Kick-off	Status
	Premier League	Man CityvArsenal	Sat 7 May	15:00
	Premier League	ArsenalvAston Villa	Sun 15 May	15:00

Incredibly crowded, right?  Five games in 16 days starting Feb 20, including Barcelona, Man U, and Tottenham!  If Giroud breaks his leg or even pulls a hamstring, we're in trouble!  But everyone else has similarly crowded schedules, and we have a big squad--and we're as healthy as we've been since October.  I'm not optimistic about Champions' League, but you know, we can beat Barca.  Really.  And the way United is playing, we should win that game.  That's our valley of death.  If we set ourselves up by beating Leicester, and manage to get to Feb 6 without dropping more than two points, I think we're looking really good.  The only top team we face after that is Man City in May, and by then we can put so much daylight between us they can't catch us.  Well, that's the way I'm calling it, anyway.

Additional FA Cup and ECL games complicate matters, of course, but those are happy complications.  We can prioritize, and we have that big squad.  I don't really expect Wilshere or Welbeck to contribute, unfortunately, but it would be great if they could.  We're going to wear out Giroud and Ramsey.  I do expect Elneny to add something positive, and for Coquelin to return to fitness.  Iwobi can slot in occasionally, and Walcott may start to become useful again, though I'm not counting on it.  We will need some good work out of Campbell and Chamberlain.  I have a feeling that Ozil is going to start assisting again; he's putting some good balls in there and our guys just aren't making the most of them.

What do you think?

Arsenal 2 - 0 Bournemouth

Cech has the most clean sheets in the EPL this season.  He made a great double save today to keep the Cherries from scoring late.  This was an efficient win for the Gunners.  They pressured Bournemouth until they got two goals (withing 90 seconds of each other in the first half) and then kept them mostly far from our goal the rest of the way.  I kept waiting for them to overcommit and for Arsenal to score more on the counter, but they kept their shape.  Our weaknesses were not much exposed today, despite Bournemouth's tidy yet purposeful play.  But Flamini nearly got sent off early for a stupid two-footed tackle.  No, it should not have been a red, but it could have been, and what DM wants to pay on a yellow for most of the game?  The standout player was Ramsey.  He's really good in a lot of games.  He shoots too much, but someone has to.  He got an assist today on Ox's well-taken goal.  He made quite a few tackles and was all over the pitch where he needed to be.

Leicester and Tottenham won yesterday, Man City lost to Leicester, and Man U was victimized by Diego Costa late and drew.  So, pretty good weekend.  Third place, five out of first, and we play them at home Sunday, while Spuds play City.  It ought to be interesting.  February has to be better than January, right?

The Chelsea-United game was far more entertaining than ours, but puzzling.  United was far better until they scored, then Chelsea totally dominated the rest of the way.  Speaking of United, there are rumors about Mourinho going there.  That's nuts.  If he does, it could only be because Guardiola went to City and United is panicking.  But Mourinho, in my opinion, is the last guy they need.  He'll demand that they spend another 200M pounds this summer on players and will probably let some of their promising young guys get away.

It's a little early to start lining up a replacement for Wenger, but it won't be an egotistical prima donna like The Special One.

Arsenal 0 - 0 Southampton

Well.
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Not the day I was hoping for, that's for sure.  Fourth place, behind the Spuds on goal difference (10!).  I don't have much to say.  Flamini was awful, and I don't understand how Walcott gets on the field anymore.  Everyone else played well, but the Saints defense was too well organized and too strong--and Forster made a couple very good saves.  It could easily have been worse, had Mane, Long, or another Saint converted good chances.  But we had ten shots on target to their three, and dominated the second half.  We should have won this.  My optimism has evaporated.  It's not enough to have most of the players back; Wenger has to play the right ones.  We miss Cazorla.

Three points out of twelve.  That's relegation form, not trophy form.  I guess this is who we are.  One point out of Southampton, none from Chelsea...unacceptable.  Even a Champions' League place is questionable if Wenger can't turn things around, and quickly.

Arsenal 2 - 1 Burnley

Give Burnley credit:  they came to win, and their recent form in the Championship gave them confidence they would.  They played well.  Sean Dyche (Burnley's manager) got his tactics right.  Yet Arsenal beat them having made nine changes from the starting 11 in their last EPL game.  It wasn't comfortable, but it was definitely earned.

I've never been one of those who was glad we were out of a cup competition because it would allow us to concentrate on the league.  With a squad the size of Arsenal's, even carrying our usual load of injuries, we should be able to scrape up a decent team for a League Cup or FA Cup contest.  It's valuable playing time for our backups and sometimes even for youngsters.  We don't have to play guys who are tired or nursing knocks.  The worst that can happen is what happened at Sheffield Wednesday--injuries and a loss.  Yeah, that's bad.  But players can pick up injuries in the league too.  It should be about trying to win every piece of silverware on offer, but being smart about it.  And Wenger has been pretty smart about it over the last 20 years.

The best that can happen is we win and we improve while we're doing it, and that's what happened at the Emirates.  Elneny looked to be a very good purchase, the Ox played better than he has in a long time, Coquelin seems healed, and Ospina has gotten some confidence back.  Alexis scored!  Chambers got the first goal with a bit of skill I did not think he had.  Alex Iwobi improves steadily.  I admit that Kos and Gabriel didn't handle the Burnley forwards as well as they ought to have, and that our fullbacks showed why they are not starting these days.  And why Wenger brought on Walcott when were one goal up is a mystery.  Had Theo found Elneny with an easy square pass to finish the game off Wenger would have looked smart, but instead, after his trademark indifference for defending, he exhibited his usual lack of scoring touch.  I'd have put Monreal on and pushed Gibbs up when Alexis was taken off; Wenger has done it before.

Our next two games are Southampton at home and Bournemouth away.  Leicester play Liverpool and Man City.  We're getting healthy; even Rosicky can play, though he shouldn't get much time.  We could be in first in eight days.  We may not see Wilshere or Welbeck for a while, but we're so flush with attacking talent that we can leave Walcott on the bench, which I think is his best position.  We're two deep almost everywhere now.  (Giroud, Ozil, and Cech come closest to being irreplaceable.)  If we don't win the league, well, this excellent team will just not have been good enough.  But they ought to feel confident.

January = November?

Fortunately, I have been out of the country all January, so have not seen a minute of Arsenal live.  Our points haul in the last three league games is abusmal, and we have lost our first place status.  The crazy thing is that no one else seems to want to win the league either, so we're still in excellent position.  I'll let someone else do the work, but if any prior league leader after 23 games had just 47 points (as Leicester does), I'd be surprised.  Arsenal is getting their injured players back at the right time.  We may not see Cazorla this season, but Alexis, Welbeck, and Rosicky should give us a boost on offense, and if Coquelin can replace Flamini at DM it would be a giant improvement.  It's trivially true, but the Gunners still control their destiny, and that's a good place to be.

The Burnley FA Cup game will still be played in January, and maybe Elneny can show us what he can contribute to the team.  A win is required here, as it will be at home next Tuesday against a Southampton team that dominated us at St Mary's.  This is not the stage of the season for "a good point".  Squad strength and quality should be enough to fight on three fronts.  I am not giving up on the Barcelona matches.

I don't see a place for Theo Walcott on the field, the way he's playing.  Campbell and Alexis should own the wings, and it's Giroud up front.  Theo should not be the first substitute for any position either.  Iwobi and Welbeck are more likely to contribute--and at both ends--than is Walcott, who is killing us out there.  Even Chamberlain seems more likely to score, though that's not saying much.  I don't care how much we're paying him, he needs to sit for a while.  For Burnley, could we see Rosicky in Ozil's position?  He, Ramsey, and Giroud could use a break, maybe Bellerin too.  But too many changes threatens another Sheffield Wednesday debacle.

I'll resume regular articles on Arsenal next week, win or lose.  But I sure hope it's win.

Arsenal 3 - 1 Sunderland

It stinks not being able to watch the games live, but I can get highlights.  Three beautiful Arsenal goals (and a fine one from Sunderland) decorated this game that saw Wenger extend his record of never having lost a third-round (i.e. first game) FA Cup tie.  Well done Hector!  I firmly believe that Joel Campbell's willingness to cover frees Bellerin for those effective overlaps.  He'd be less likely to bomb forward with Walcott in front of him.  It was great to see Ramsey finish with such aplomb, and Joel is becoming more confident every game.  Is Iwobi as good as he looked on the day?  Maybe not, but he showed tremendous promise.

So, Burnley at the Emirates next.  I hope we take it seriously.  Three in a row would be nice, and the squad has real depth these days.  When Alexis gets back, we will be a scary proposition for just about every opponent.

Arsenal 1 - 0 Newcastle

I did not see this game, which was played at 4 AM where I am now and was not carried on a channel I can get here anyway.  But as if by some strange power that operated from the opposite side of the planet, I woke up at the half and again just after the end of the game and checked the scores.  Apparently, we played badly in dreadful weather, but this really fine goal and some heroics from Cech were enough to get us three vital points.  Leicester drew, so now we're clear top by two points, and can cross our fingers and hope that chasers Tottenham and Manchester City stumble.

It's the transfer silly season, so rumors are flying.  The one with the most credibility is that Elneny is coming in from Basel.  He seems like someone who could work in the middle of the midfield, or on the wings, places we're short until our wounded warriors recover.  I hope it comes to fruition and he gets a work permit quickly.  Debuchy is being loaned to West Brom, which is good for him and for us.  I was excited when we bought him, but he was injured twice in a nightmare season last year, and then the amazing Hector Bellerin established himself as a really good right back.  With Chambers on the squad desperate for playing time, and Jenkinson still on our books, you could say we were very much overstocked in that position.  Isaac Hayden was recalled from Hull, but will probably be loaned out again.  He and Bielek are potential future DMs but neither is ready to play for Arsenal.  In addition to Jenkinson, we have a number of other loanees who could feature for our first team one day, including Serge Gnabry, Ainslee Maitland-Niles, Gedion Zelalem, and Jan Toral, all midfielders.  My guess is that Wenger is going to try hard to get quality help all over the midfield, and if he can't buy it, he may recall a loanee or two for backup.  I think we're dangerously dependent on Giroud and wouldn't mind seeing a big forward on the squad in the Benteke or Lukaku mold.  (Whatever happened to Sanogo?)  But it's wonderful to know that we have excellent cover for our back line in every position.  Let's not forget that we have a keeper situation, with Ospina very short on confidence and opportunities to show he's got what it takes.  I have not been following Szczesny closely at Roma, but they do like him, when he's not smoking.  I hope he sent a condolence message to Cech about the loss to Southampton.  If you remember, it was a 2-0 loss there (followed by a smoke break in the shower) that sealed the Pole's fate and made Ospina our main man until the Cech signing.

Well, City won.  Too bad.