Arseblog has a story today that's evergreen. Ozil and Alexis have told Wenger they want to stay. But as he says, "It always starts with money, it ends with money and inbetween the players want to stay." Okay, it's better when the player wants to stay than when he says he wants to move on, but he has a family, an agent, and an ego to feed, so money and silverware are always a consideration. All things being equal, the best players would like to live in a world class city (like London Paris) and work for a classy manager who treats them with respect (like Wenger), and also win a lot of titles (like Barca or Bayern) and make obscene amounts of money (look what Wayne Rooney is pulling down for his indifferent work). Careers are short in athletics, and every great player wants to be remembered as a winner for club and country. Sadly, Arsenal is not the likeliest club to add luster to a player's legacy by capturing a series of major trophies; and it is a club run as a business rather than a hobby, so there is a salary structure which is resistant to change. And complicating everything is the fact that this is Wenger's final year on his current contract. Stan and the board love him, of course, but he's in his late 60s and the last decade or so has seen just two trophies (not counting the Charity Shield exhibitions), neither of which were for winning the League or the ECL.
Would Ozil and/or Sanchez be more likely to sign if Wenger stays, or less likely? I don't know. On the one hand, I have to believe they like and respect him. On the other, he may be seen by them as an obstacle to Arsenal's winning a major trophy, and a roadblock in the way of a bigger payday (he is reputed to resist having any player paid more than he is). But worst, I think, would be their uncertainty as to whether he will stay. So, if Arsenal are serious about retaining the services of our Dynamic Duo, they ought to reach a decision on whether the boss comes back next year. They don't have to announce it publicly, but it ought to be something that the players in question can have confidence in so they can make an informed decision. [On Jan 8, Ozil said he wants "clarity" on Wenger's future, stressing that he came to Arsenal because of Wenger.]
Should Wenger stay? I've always resisted the calls for him to go, but my opinion at this time is that this should be his last year at Arsenal. My preference would be for him to have announced that earlier, but now is better than next month. Would it unsettle the team? Sure, but in a good way. Too many have become a trifle complacent. I know they all work hard in training and on the pitch, but I believe that some guys have come to believe they're part of the furniture at the club, and see no good reason to doubt that they'll be back next year whatever they do on the field. Theo Walcott may be Exhibit A in this regard, but there are a lot of others who seem to be relying on sentiment rather performance to keep them on the roster. That goes out the window the minute Wenger announces his retirement. I predict a renewal of urgency and enhanced focus from quite a few players this season. They'll want to make a case for staying, or at least for a high salary at a big club if they're sold.
Will Wenger stay? There are good reasons to think Arsenal have contacted top prospects, so he may be on the way out. Unless something unusual happens this year, he's likely to finish trophyless once more. If Arsenal finish in fifth place (where they are today), it would be a massive blow to the club, financially and in prestige. It's not how he'd choose to go, but it wouldn't be his choice then. My uneducated guess is that he'll announce his summer retirement soon. But I don't have a lot of confidence in that hunch.
If I were Alexis or Ozil, I'd want assurances that the team would be strengthened next season as well as their own (admittedly huge) salary demands be met. With or without Wenger, that may not happen. Kroenke wants to make money; he is not one of those owners whose sense of self-worth is dependent on the number of trophies his properties win. He's probably pretty happy with his investment so far. But it could all go sour rather quickly if he doesn't keep investing. It's a balancing act. It would not surprise me at all if both our stars were sold for huge paydays this summer, and the profits invested in an array of players identified as targets by the new manager. What that means for longtime squad members like Ramsey and Ox is a subject we can discuss if this comes to pass.
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