Don't Tell Me the Odds

 Arseblog's stats guy posted that Arsenal is a favorite to get 4th place--64% according to his model.  Well, we won't be playing in his computer.  We'll be playing actual teams, who are healthy or injured (just like us), and more or less motivated due to relegation scraps or contract situations or new coaches, and which (just like us) encounter dips or surges in form.  We play West Ham, Man U, and Spuds, all opportunities for either us or a rival to make huge progress or suffer a huge setback.  Arteta and every other coach goes game by game, trying to win every one, and that's the only way to approach this run-in.  Europe wants us to return, I just know it.  I don't want to disappoint them.  One step at a time, please.

Of course, stumbles like United's at home against sorry Watford help.  They're in fourth, being two points better than us, but having played three more games.  West Ham and Wolves are playing now (scoreless early in the second half) and one or both will drop points (I'm hoping for a draw, of course).  I won't cry if we finish fifth; Europa League is still Europe, if a less lucrative tournament than Champions' League.  But eighth would be a dismal failure, our having been eighth the last two seasons.  We're better, especially defensively, and we should finish higher.

That we are out of all the tournaments does simplify matters for Arteta.  His sole focus will be on the league, whereas United (for instance) will be dividing effort and attention.  But ultimately, we want to have that sort of problem next year, in the hunt for multiple trophies.  Fingers crossed.