One Nil to the Arsenal: Foxes in a Box

 Leicester had one shot in this game at the King Power, and it was not on goal.  That's their lowest shot total for at least two decades.  Their defensive discipline was good, and they almost stymied us.  But early in the second half, Trossard ran onto a long ball, hesitated, and slid a lovely pass through the defender's legs and into Martinelli's stride, and Gabi tucked it into the far corner.  That turned out to be enough to keep us top of the table after City's demolition of Bournemouth.  

AVL 2 - 4 ARS

 First half:

Arsenal was cut apart twice after elementary errors by their fullbacks.  Their goal was due to a Villa error.  The strikes were all very good, but it was a sloppy game and Arsenal is playing themselves right out of the title chase.  I like what we're trying to do, but it's clear now that we are no longer able to do it with any regularity.  Teams know the formula:  lots of fouls to slow us down, defense stoutly, and wait for us to overcommit and lose the ball--then counter.  I'm not thinking that we're going to break Villa down twice.  I hope I'm wrong.  Everyone thinks they can beat us now, and they are doing it.

Second half:

Villa had their chances, but Arsenal dominated proceedings.  Zinchenko made up for his error on the first goal with a superb strike to make it 2-2.  There it sat, despite golden opportunities for both sides, until Jorginho blasted one off the underside of the crossbar and onto Emi Martinez's head and into the goal three minutes into extra time.  When Martinez came up for a corner, it gave us the chance to score an empty net goal, which Martinelli did with the last kick of the game.  Glorious result, made more impactful by City's somehow failing to beat Forest two hours later.  

It Gets Worse: ARS 1 - 3 MCI

 Again, we can have no complaints.  City potted three goals from the run of play and the only one we got was a PK from a clumsy foul by Ederson on Nketiah.  Both managers had the same general idea, but Pep's squad executed it better.  That said, I thought the Gunners looked pretty good out there and there wasn't that much between the teams.  It was decided by defensive errors.  The task now is to win some games--a lot of them, and soon.  We have the game in hand and the opportunity to play City in about ten weeks.  If we aren't injury-hit, we will have Partey back, and I hope Jesus.

Nketiah will get some flak for his missed opportunities.  The first was a bad miss.  He had a free header, albeit at a tough angle, and should at least have forced a save.  The other two big chances were not great balls because Eddie only got close to them by being offside.  Had he scored on them the goals would not have stood.  And as I mentioned, he won the PK.  The opposing teams concentrate on stopping Saka, cutting off the main source of goals.  We don't have another goalscorer of his skills.  Arteta needs to rethink his structure and tactics.  Panic never helps; the team is still strong and should start winning again.  But there's little margin for error, because the Manchester clubs are both hitting on all cylinders at the moment.

Bad Day at the Office: ARS 1 - 1 BRE (men) and ARS 1 - 2 MCI (women)

 Again, no complaints about the final score.  We dominated possession but aside from the very nice goal from Trossard we didn't create many good chances.  The Bees could have been 2-0 up at the half with decent finishing.  There was a strong hint of offside on their goal which I don't see how VAR missed, but in truth out defenders should have dealt with the danger from the free kick Toney bought from the referee.  (He clasped his hands behind his back and hauled Saliba down but made it look as though he was fouled.)  Three successive headers were won by Brentford and Ramsdale pulled himself out of position.  

I think we're being found out in recent games.  Teams will sit back, absorb pressure, and play direct on the break.  They'll get free kicks and corners, hoping to score that way.  I like out chances better against a team like Man City who will play than I do against a disciplined counterattacking team.

The Arsenal women had an awful first half and now are behind in the WSL championship race.  the season unraveled after Miedema and Mead had their ACL surgeries.  I don't think much of their Champions' League chances.  I hope they can win the Conti Cup final.

EVE 1 - 0 ARS

 The home team had just 30% possession, but this was no smash-and-grab.  We got outplayed, outfought, and outcoached.  Arsenal's idea seemed to be to get the ball out wide to Saka and Martinelli and let them make something happen.  What happened was we created almost nothing.  Everton, on the other hand, defended in energetic, organized fashion, and pressed high when the opportunity arose.  They slung in dangerous crosses that we did not deal with very well.  They played for corners, and on one of them, Tarkowski bullied Odegaard for a simple headed goal.  I haven't looked at the xG stats, but my guess is that Everton's was over 2 and ours was about 0.4. The Toffees are playing way better under Dyche than they were under Lampard, and I wish the league had scheduled this one for January.

What a deflating loss, right after the Citizens bounced us out of the FA Cup too. The new boys Trossard and Jorginho came on the minute before the goal and did not do much afterwards.  I didn't notice that the Gunners were playing poorly; they pinged the ball around pretty well and won their share of 50-50 duels.  But the Toffees had a better plan and they executed it pretty well.  They really should have had a goal in the first half, maybe two.  We looked weak on a number of occasions.  Well, we will have to shake this one off, learn a few things, and get back to winning ways before we're hauled back amongst the pack.  There's no more room for error.

Here's the xG stats.  Everton's was 1.58, ours was 0.81.  They had four "big chances" and we had none.  We had more shots inside the box, but they were all poor quality.  They edged us in shots on goal.  The Toffees fouled a lot and picked up some yellows, but that was in their plan.

Man U won, Newcastle drew, so both closed the gap some.  

The January Transfer Window: Not What We Expected, Mostly

 I think everyone expected Cedric to go to Fulham, where he'll launch cross after cross at Mitrovic, to the latter's delight.  It's a loan, but he's not coming back.  I did not think we'd loan out Sambi Lokonga, a player I like and one who's done OK deputizing for Xhaka or Partey in midfield.  He will, I think, do well at Palace, and either return (unlikely) or be sold in the summer.  Marquinhos desperately needs minutes in a first team, and he will probably get them for Norwich in the Championship.  He will be back, assuming he develops as expected.

The incomings were unexpected by the fanbase.  Jakub Kiwior fits the Arteta mold for a defender, young (22), versatile, left-footed (Gabriel was our only natural left CB), with good dribbling and distribution skills.  But no one knew we wanted him.  Leandro Trossard is 28 and at the peak of his powers.  He's already contributed and I love that move.  He was definitely the backup plan after we missed out on Mudryk, but at $50M less I really like this one.  Speaking of cheap Plan Bs, Jorginho was over $60M cheaper than Moises Caicedo, whom Brighton was not going to sell anyway.  The supporters are grumbling about us buying another old Chelsea castoff, but at 31 the Brazilian/Italian can perform for the 18 months that we have him under contract.  He's not a one-for-one replacement for Partey, but he does some things better and has loads of top level experience.  So Partey can be rested occasionally, and Jorginho can be slotted in if Partey's injured.  Our top four bid was scuppered last spring largely because Partey missed a lot of games.  Of course, Elneny is out for the season with a knee problem/operation.  I would have liked to keep Lokonga, but Arteta had no confidence in him so he wasn't going to get a lot of important minutes anyway.

All in all, I'm happy.  We have more firepower in Trossard and a quality #6 in Jorginho.  Kiwior solidifies the defensive base.  Fingers crossed that Smith-Rowe stays healthy and regains the stellar form he had early on last season.  Eddie Nketieh is leading the line better than almost anyone expected.  If Jesus can rise again, so much the better.  Like any other team, Arsenal can be hit hard with injuries to key players, but we have some cover at most positions and are playing well.  The season will probably be defined by our remaining league games with Man City.  Four points from them, or maybe even two or three, will see us most of the way to the title.  Losing both would be a blow.