Saturday, February 10, 2018

What Top Four Prospects? Tottenham 1 - 0 Arsenal

No complaints here.  On the day, Spurs were better, and not by a little bit either.  They had 57% possession, ten corners (to our 2), and outshot us 16-4, 8-1 on target.  Their offside trap worked perfectly; ours, not so much.  Despite the golden opportunities for a late equalizer, my view is that only some poor finishing by Spurs kept them from being out of sight by then.  We won't finish top four because we aren't a top four team.  Spurs may be, but we are not, this week.  And we've run out of weeks to haul in the teams ahead of us.

I don't think it was a matter of our system or of our personnel.  It came down to execution.  Spurs had an eleven out there who knew each other.  We had our regular back four, the usual mix-and-match midfield, and an attacking four who barely were acquainted on the playing field.  Those guys might tear up Everton on talent alone, but today they did not have the time and space to work things out with their new mates.  By April, they may be a well-öiled machine, but then we'll be at least six points off fourth place and maybe that many back of fifth too, barring a collapse by Chelsea.

I don't know if Ramsey would have changed anything.  I didn't mind seeing Elneny in front of a back four, but he does not contribute much offensively.  Xhaka was more disciplined than usual, or maybe it was that he had Elneny cleaning up behind him.  Tottenham did their damage from the flanks, with better crossing than we are capable of.  Ozil and Mkhitaryan could have covered better, but I'm not going to assign blame for the goal (or their other chances).  Tottenham's speed of thought was quicker on both sides of the ball.  Our guys did well individually; but their team played better.

The most disappointing player was of course Mikhi.  His final ball was way off and he wasn't combining well.  Auba got very little service.  (By the way, the linesman made the right but very tight call on his first half chance to go one on one with Lloris.  I'd happily trade the one they gave Auba against Everton for this one, but it does not work that way.)  Ozil was not bad, but I would have hoped for more defensive work in the derby.  Jack did his usual thing but the defense dealt with it.  I'm getting seriously annoyed with Bellerin:  he gets by far the most chances to cross the ball into the box but the quality is dreadful.  He does everything else well;  shouldn't this be an area he can work on?  Spurs had more of the ball, and a lot more in dangerous areas, so they had more crossing opportunities.  Some of them were outstanding, including the one Kane got up high (with a little assist) to head so perfectly for the goal.  (I would not have blown for a foul there.)  The subs were a mixed bag.  I thought Lacazette gave them real problems (and should have equalized late), but Iwobi seemed easy to defend, coughing up the ball repeatedly.  Welbeck just did not look the part when he had a chance to influence the game. 

The future seems a bit clearer now.  Lacazette needs to get his goals in the Europa League (Aubameyang is cup-tied) and Wenger really has to concentrate on that contest.  Ostersund should not be an obstacle if we take the game seriously, and by the next round we'll have played the Carabao Cup final (which is obviously a big priority).  No way can Leicester overtake us for sixth, and it's highly unlikely we can climb into fourth now.  The tables I look at show fifth spot as the last Europa League place, but doesn't the League Cup winner get a slot?  If we win, we're in; if City win, sixth place should go to Europe, right?  And then there are the FA Cup finalists, who probably will include at least one top five team, meaning sixth is still a Europa League place.  Next year it seems certain we're going to Europe one way or another, but it would be fantastic to go to Champions' League as the Europa winners.

I have to believe Conte would get more out of Arsenal next season than Wenger.  It seems that someone has gotten to Kroenke and convinced him to spend more money and let people other than Wenger make the personnel decisions.  That tells me that they're planning for a future post-Wenger in a way I have not seen before.  Is Conte the man?  I like him, but he is more in the Mourinho mold.  He won't be at the Emirates long, assuming he even wants the job.  He could decide to do the Italy job again and say goodbye to club football if Chelsea fire him.  But there are few if any better gigs than Arsenal in 2018-19.  They're going for a top GK, CB, and DM.  Mert is all but gone, Kos is aging, and Monreal is also in decline (but they're both still excellent).  Mustafi is a starter but he'll need a partner better than he is.  Chambers and Holding are fine but not quite top four quality.  The great thing about the Gunners is that we have all the firepower any club could need.  Once they start clicking--and they will--the goals will be there.  Tighten things up through the center and Arsenal is a top four team, maybe a title contender.  Easier said than done, but I expect a resurgence next season.  If we can manage a cup win this year, that'll be three years running (and four out of five) with silverware.  That's not shabby.  This is not Burnley; we're not even Tottenham when it comes right down to it.  They're playing better than we are today; they ARE better than we are today.  But I think our past, including our recent past, is superior in terms of achievement, and I like our chances next year better than our North London rivals.  Kane may be sold; Dele Alli will still be a wanker.  Stadium debt will tempt them to continue their golden habit of selling their best players for ridiculous amounts of money.  No amount of Lamelas would replace Prince Harry.

But it's about us, not them.  There's glory, and silverware, on offer this season; and the prospects are bright for next season too.  It was a bad day today, but I'm expecting many better days in the months and years to come.

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