Losada out at DC United, ECL Drama

 A run of poor results late last season and to start this season doomed Losada's job.  He was not a popular figure, but as long as he was winning, that was fine.  I'm not convinced he was the problem, but United did win their first game after the firing.  I'd like to see more games at Audi Field and I hope the team is worth watching.  The last United game I saw there was one of the worst games I have ever seen in any sport, a 0-0 snoozefest with no action to speak of.

Man City 4 - 3 Real Madrid.  What a game.  It should be a dynamite return leg in the Bernabeu.  Liverpool broke Villareal in the second half yesterday and could have done better than 2 - 0, but that should be plenty.  The Spanish side never looked like scoring.  Unai Emery is a tournament specialist who regularly wins or reaches the semis and finals of these major European contests (they're in Champions' League because they won Europa League last year, and Emery won three times with Valencia, and got Arsenal to the final).  But it was always asking too much to get a good result at Anfield, and I think they'll be taken apart on the counter back home as they press for a goal.

Notts County is in great position to make the promotion playoff in the National League.  I am not confident they'll win the three games against their rivals to join Stockport going up to League 2.

Juve looks to be going to Champions' League next year.  They are also in the May 11 Coppa Italia final against Inter. When those teams play, it's called the Derby d'Italia because they are Italy's two most successful teams historically and recently.

A Closer Look at the United Game

 Arseblog carries posts by Scott Willis, who crunches the numbers and analyzes games.  This is his latest "By the Numbers" column.  This is the graphic that I wanted to call attention to:

This game could have gone either way.  Arteta's post game comments shjowed that he understood that.  This was not a case of the Gunners dismissing United at home: it was a wild affair in which the visitors looked more dangerous than us until Xhaka smashed our third with 20 minutes to go, after which we closed shop and they could not get a shot on target.

My point here is that while we are better than the Palace, Brighton, and Southampton results, we are still vulnerable, with a thin squad that requires a bit of luck to win games.  We did great against Chelsea, no question, but United could very easily have gotten one or even three points Saturday.  It's not going to be a cakewalk into 4th place.  The bright spot is that Tottenham and United are just as inconsistent as we are, and West Ham is distracted by Europa League.  If we beat the Spuds we ought to be in Champions' League next year, so that's the pivotal contest.

Back in Control? ARS 3 - 1 MUN (and Spuds held at Brentford)

 This is the part of the season where we can evaluate the run-in and come up with perfectly reasonable expectations that get dashed by actual results.  So let's do it.  But first:

Once again, I was not parked in front of a TV for this crazy game.  That's fine with me, because it had way too much defensive error excitement and VAR hijinks to make for comfortable viewing.  Following it on LiveScore was grueling enough.  It's 1-0, then it's 2-0, then it's 1-0 again, then VAR picks up Tellez barging into Saka for a penalty and it's 2-0 again.  Our defenders fall asleep and Ronaldo makes it 2-1 within minutes.  We could have had three penalties called against us, but only one was, and Fernandez missed the goal entirely on his PK.  Ronaldo put the ball in the net again, but was offside by an inch.  And finally, Xhaka blasts past an unsighted DeGea for 3-1, and Nketieh could have been ruled to have interfered.  Hey, I am not going to argue if VAR has suddenly become our friend after torturing us all season.  The bottom line is that this was a huge win in a game that could have gone either way.  It puts United pretty much out of contention for 4th.  And Spuds dropped two points against the Bees, leaving us two up on them with each team having five games left.  The good news for Tottenham is that they play us, so they have their destiny in their hands, as do we.

The last five games:

Arsenal              Tottenham

West Ham          Leicester

Leeds                  Liverpool

Tottenham           Arsenal

Newcastle           Burnley

Everton               Norwich

West Ham and Leicester are both in European semifinals and are concentrating on that.  I'd expect three points for both North London sides.  Leeds should not pose a problem for us, though you never know when they're fighting to stay up; Liverpool really ought to beat Spuds.  Then there's the NLD, with the win being vital.  It's at their place.  I'm hoping for a draw or better.  Both contenders have a tricky fixture in the penultimate week:  Newcastle is on fire, and Burnley will be desperate to stay in the Premier League.  This could be the weekend that breaks hearts.  On the final day, We'll be playing an Everton side that may be on the brink of relegation, while Tottenham will play a team that has been resigned for months to going down: advantage Spuds.  I'm hoping we have a four point lead over Tottenham by then.

I'm reasonably confident, but we have two key players out for the season (Tierney and Partey) and we did lose three in a row recently to teams that are not all that strong.  At least we're in a strong position to get into Europa League if we don't finish top four.

What a Ride

 I was so sure Chelsea would beat us at the Bridge today that I spent the first half at the beach.  After a shower, I checked the score and saw that I was missing a 2-2 barnburner.  So I turned it on and within twenty seconds Nketieh got his scrappy goal, which proved to be the winner.  Chelsea had 35 minutes or so to equalize yet again but could not, then came a late questionable penalty on Saka that he finished emphatically for the final score, CHE 2 - 4 ARS.  

Since none of the teams from 3rd through 8th seems capable of sustained adequacy, the European qualification slots are all up for grabs.  Chelsea is in commanding position for 3rd, but is a team in trouble now and could conceivably blow it.  But for that to happen, two of the teams below them would have to win five of their last six, which will be nigh impossible given that they play each other.  I still think Tottenham will grab 4th, but I have high hopes for a Europa League slot for the Gunners.  They could also stroll into the Champions' League if the Spuds collapse and we play well the rest of the way.  Getting seven points from the West Ham, Man U, and Tottenham games would be fantastic.  Five might be enough for UCL.  Four means a good shot at Europa League.  Wolves are odds-on to be the 8th place team that misses out, and West Ham is my pick to be in Europa Conference League, if they don't win Europa League this year and qualify for UCL.  That would mean that Arsenal and Man United would be in the Europa League, and pre-tournament favorites to go a long way in it.

Don't forget the razor-thin margin at the very top, with City a point ahead of Liverpool but a worse goal difference, and the struggle to avoid relegation, which is nowhere near resolution.

Newcastle 1 Crystal Palace 0

A road loss, which makes it three losses in a row for Crystal Palace. The team badly needs a win to turn their season back out of this tailspin.

Prince Bonesaw's ownership has turned Newcastle around - maybe the Newcastle players and coaches are afraid he will invite them into his embassy if they don't perform well.  

Chelsea 2 Crystal Palace 0

 The FA Cup run ends in the semifinals.  It was the best Palace has done in several years.  Not many goals for Crystal Palace to aim for during the rest of the season.  

Joy in Spudville

 Wolves, Man U, and Arsenal all lost, while Tottenham crushed Villa 4-0, a team that Arsenal squeaked by 1-0 when we were healthy.  Conte has apparently fixed what was wrong with the inconsistent Spuds and I will be very surprised if they don't get a Champions' League spot.  Arsenal was in the driver's seat, but that was before Tierney and Partey picked up serious injuries.  Tomiyasu has been out for a while at RB, and now our starting LB is out for the season.  Partey is irreplaceable in the center of our midfield.  We have a non-scoring center forward.  Arteta has no answers.  Every team wants to play us now.  I would be happy to make Europa League.  That's where I was when the season started.  The Gunners are not a Champions' League squad.

OK, the season has a way to go yet, and there could be twists and turns.  But I do not see Arsenal or Man U beating Tottenham now, and both absolutely have to do just that to have a chance at 4th place.

Crystal Palace 3 - 0 Arsenal

 I can't argue with the score at halftime.  Palace was at least that much better.  I don't see a way back for the Gunners now, but I'm looking forward to seeing how they go about meeting this challenge.  A loss here would drag them into the middle of the pack of chasers for 4th spot.

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The second half was much better, but Palace still was superior.  We had a lot of the ball, which Palace did not mind, and fashioned some good chances, which the defense did just enough on to stop.  Palace's penalty was irrelevant to the result.  As far as I'm concerned, the referee did a very good job and I'll accept his call.  

I was really impressed with the energy the CP players brought.  They kept running, and pressing, and going forward.  The goals were superb.  For once, Arsenal looked slow and lazy, at least until the second half.  Vieira may have prepared for Arsenal's preferred formation, but whatever the reason, the Gunner attack was nonexistent for the first 45.

We're out of 4th place and our prospects of regaining it probably hinge on the games with our direct rivals in the table:  Man U, Tottenham, and West Ham.  We also play Chelsea.  Run that table and we're in, get blanked and we're out.  The actual results will probably lie in between, but where?  At the beginning of the season, I'd have jumped at 6th place and Europa League.  That may be where we end up--or even lower, unless we pull ourselves together.  The problem is the thinness of the squad.  Our two outside backs are injured, and the replacements were just enough under the first string level that it showed.  Partey got injured today.  We can't go much further into the squad without throwing more teenagers out there (apparently Pepe has been forgotten).  I think 6th is more likely than 4th at this point.  I hope it's not lower.