Back in Control? ARS 3 - 1 MUN (and Spuds held at Brentford)

 This is the part of the season where we can evaluate the run-in and come up with perfectly reasonable expectations that get dashed by actual results.  So let's do it.  But first:

Once again, I was not parked in front of a TV for this crazy game.  That's fine with me, because it had way too much defensive error excitement and VAR hijinks to make for comfortable viewing.  Following it on LiveScore was grueling enough.  It's 1-0, then it's 2-0, then it's 1-0 again, then VAR picks up Tellez barging into Saka for a penalty and it's 2-0 again.  Our defenders fall asleep and Ronaldo makes it 2-1 within minutes.  We could have had three penalties called against us, but only one was, and Fernandez missed the goal entirely on his PK.  Ronaldo put the ball in the net again, but was offside by an inch.  And finally, Xhaka blasts past an unsighted DeGea for 3-1, and Nketieh could have been ruled to have interfered.  Hey, I am not going to argue if VAR has suddenly become our friend after torturing us all season.  The bottom line is that this was a huge win in a game that could have gone either way.  It puts United pretty much out of contention for 4th.  And Spuds dropped two points against the Bees, leaving us two up on them with each team having five games left.  The good news for Tottenham is that they play us, so they have their destiny in their hands, as do we.

The last five games:

Arsenal              Tottenham

West Ham          Leicester

Leeds                  Liverpool

Tottenham           Arsenal

Newcastle           Burnley

Everton               Norwich

West Ham and Leicester are both in European semifinals and are concentrating on that.  I'd expect three points for both North London sides.  Leeds should not pose a problem for us, though you never know when they're fighting to stay up; Liverpool really ought to beat Spuds.  Then there's the NLD, with the win being vital.  It's at their place.  I'm hoping for a draw or better.  Both contenders have a tricky fixture in the penultimate week:  Newcastle is on fire, and Burnley will be desperate to stay in the Premier League.  This could be the weekend that breaks hearts.  On the final day, We'll be playing an Everton side that may be on the brink of relegation, while Tottenham will play a team that has been resigned for months to going down: advantage Spuds.  I'm hoping we have a four point lead over Tottenham by then.

I'm reasonably confident, but we have two key players out for the season (Tierney and Partey) and we did lose three in a row recently to teams that are not all that strong.  At least we're in a strong position to get into Europa League if we don't finish top four.