Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Two More Years

I guess we all knew it was coming.  "We will announce our decision at the right time in the right way" and all that fairly screamed that they were going to keep Wenger but didn't want to add fuel to any fires.  I don't think it was a sure thing, though.  Had our collapse extended into the last part of the season, it probably would have been a different story.  But the strong finish and the Cup win made it easy for Kroenke to do what he wanted to do all along.  It certainly would have been awkward to try to find a manager in such a short time frame.

It's a waste of time to try to guess whether AFC would have been better off with a different manager.  We have a very good one, and he's learned a few things recently that could make him better.  For instance, it's obvious now that a team with so many good center backs should have been figuring out a way to get more of them on the field at the same time, but I don't remember a groundswell among the supporters for a back three.  Allardyce is credited with bringing the value of this tactical change home to Arsene after Palace crushed us, and that may be right.  We've got the defensive personnel to rock a back three.  Every one of our backs is comfortable with the ball at his feet, and can zip a pass through the lines.  When you realize that Chambers is out on loan and Bielek is no more than a year away from being able to contribute to the senior team, we're actually overstocked with center backs.  Per is in the last year or two of top-flight football, and Kos is over 30; Monreal is not young either.  I'm not sure if Holding, Bielek, and Chambers want to wait around and be platooned or loaned, but they're all potential future mainstays in defense and I don't want to lose them.  Gabriel improved under Wenger too, and Mustafi (when he recovers) is a very good center back, especially in a three.

Wenger's greatest strength is also his greatest weakness, in my opinion.  That would be his loyalty.  He sticks with players long after most managers would give up on them as too fragile or not talented enough or insufficiently motivated.  I am still amazed at the Diaby situation; no other team in the world would have stood by him so long.  There was never a question about Wenger's faith in Ramsey or Walcott.  I remember a year when I saw Ramsey's name on a team sheet and despaired.  This year he's repaying that faith.  Theo has been more trouble than he's worth, with his difficult contract negotiations and his fussing about where he's played.  He's one of those maddening players who has lots of natural talent, a good attitude, and an appreciation for the finer points of the game, but fails to do the hard work on defense that he knows is required, and is not as productive on offense as he'd have to be to make up for his defensive lapses.  He knows what he needs to do, and wants to do it, but when it's nut-crunching time, for some mysterious reason he doesn't do it.  None of these guys is lazy; it's just something in his head that switches off far too often.  If Theo had the physique or talent to hold up the ball, he may have stuck as a striker.  But he's hopeless as a frontman.  He wants to be the guy who sits on the shoulder of the last defender and waits for Ozil to find him making a run.  Fine, but then he'd have to stay onside more, and do something useful when we don't have the ball, and learn how to put in better crosses.  (Enough about him--I just wish we'd sold him five years ago.)

Can Wenger, who has admitted that the squad is "heavy", cut some players loose?  He will find it hard.  But we shouldn't be carrying salaries for players we're essentially replacing when we get a top class winger or striker.  Iwobi is a fine backup for offensive positions.  I'd hate to lose Lucas, but I think we just might.  There are some really good young players that Wenger may have to make a decision on soon.  (We saw some in the Southampton FA Cup game.)

Alexis and Ozil.  Yes, that's the big question.  I say, find out what they want to do by offering what we think we can afford to pay (not what we want to pay, which is not going to be enough).  If one or both decide to move on, fine--get what we can for them, which in Alexis's case ought to be substantial, and move on from there.  But I think Ozil genuinely likes Wenger and wants to stay.  Alexis is probably going to move on.  We'll miss him, obviously, but we will still score goals.

Keeping Arsene says something about Arsenal that I like:  we want to win, but we want to show some class and flash doing it.  There was absolutely no guarantee that a new manager would have improved anything.  Look around the league:  was Mourinho really the answer for free-spending United?  I've been a Conte fan for a while (I support Juve and Italy), and agree that he's done wonders at Chelsea.  But he's not looking for another team.  Pep has hardly burned up the league at City.  Maybe we should have fired Wenger mid-contract and made a play for Pochettino, but maybe not.  Klopp is not Liverpool's savior after all.  So, resign yourselves to more of Wenger's courtly post-match performances in which he has nothing but praise for his players, whatever the result, and whines about some bad refereeing decisions if we don't win.  Expect to hear the following:  "belief," "confidence," "as well."  And I think you can count on the Arsenal playing well and contending for titles.  Why support any other club?  And if it's Arsenal that you love, support them all the way.  I will.

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